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Ruffer LLP

August 19, 2021

Floods in Europe, forest fires in North America and Australia—the impact and tragic results of climate change are starting to dominate the news.

Floods in Europe, forest fires in North America and Australia—the impact and tragic results of climate change are starting to dominate the news.

The actions taken by governments, companies and individuals in the next decade will be crucial if we are to limit the rise in global temperatures. The option of doing nothing has now passed, not just for the environment, but for companies and investors too.

August 3, 2021

Inflation is back, but for how long? Bertie Dannatt, investment director, joins Ruffer Radio to discuss how markets are digesting the return of inflation, and what rising prices mean for consumers and investors alike.

Inflation is back, but for how long?

Bertie Dannatt, investment director, joins Ruffer Radio to discuss how markets are digesting the return of inflation, and what rising prices mean for consumers and investors alike.

Click the image below to play the podcast.

July 13, 2021

We have been talking of inflation for well over a decade—which is not the same thing as calling its timing. An impasse was created by the failure of the economy to grow after the 2008 crisis—all the risks (as we patiently explained) were deflationary, and in vain did the central banks and governments try to force an inflationary impulse into a sluggish world. Their primary weapon? An invention, deployed on a grand scale—quantitative easing (QE to its friends).

I am writing this just before a US inflation report which, to quote Bloomberg, “May provide clues on the monetary-policy outlook; S&P futures were little changed, as were European stocks [awaiting] the next policy statement from the European Central Bank…”

May 28, 2021

Water, in many ways, is a proxy for life itself. Civilisations have sprung from fertile river valleys and along the trading routes of the seas. For NASA, when searching for extra-terrestrial life, the guiding principle has been to ‘follow the water’.

Water, in many ways, is a proxy for life itself. Civilisations have sprung from fertile river valleys and along the trading routes of the seas. For NASA, when searching for extra-terrestrial life, the guiding principle has been to ‘follow the water’.

What is water scarcity?

May 20, 2021

Over the past five months investors put more money into equity funds than in the previous twelve years combined. It’s easy to see why.

Over the past five months investors put more money into equity funds than in the previous twelve years combined. It’s easy to see why.

There is a lot of spare money around. Central banks have flooded the economy with support and generous government subsidies have filled the gap for millions of individuals. Those who could, saved.

April 28, 2021

Inflation is in the news again. Many prices are rising even before we can physically get out and spend, and governments are pouring vast amounts into the economy.

Inflation is in the news again. Many prices are rising even before we can physically get out and spend, and governments are pouring vast amounts into the economy.

Whichever side of the inflation debate you are on, it makes sense to assess the impact inflation could have on portfolios. Most of today’s investors have never seen meaningful inflation in the whole of their professional careers. So, as we emerge from lockdowns and pent-up demand meets ongoing supply constraints, we consider how different asset classes might fare if inflation does return.

March 31, 2021

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

Investors’ great fear

February 18, 2021

We all know that 2020 was an incredible, and terrible, year. The pandemic caused the worst recession for centuries, along with an appalling death toll and suffering. Meanwhile financial assets pushed ever upwards, surfing a wave of liquidity meant to counteract the impact of the pandemic.

We all know that 2020 was an incredible, and terrible, year. The pandemic caused the worst recession for centuries, along with an appalling death toll and suffering. Meanwhile financial assets pushed ever upwards, surfing a wave of liquidity meant to counteract the impact of the pandemic.

The chart below shows that it was also a record year for share issuance, surpassing even the heady days of 1999-2000.

January 21, 2021

Somewhere in a cupboard, I have a set of eight contract notes dated 8 January 1975, when I invested—upwards of £100 per holding!—in a range of UK equities. Reader, I called the bottom of the market—a dangerous thing for a young man to do.

Somewhere in a cupboard, I have a set of eight contract notes dated 8 January 1975, when I invested—upwards of £100 per holding!—in a range of UK equities. Reader, I called the bottom of the market—a dangerous thing for a young man to do.

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